- Central banks are indicating that interest rates will likely stay high for an extended period.
- But with powerful disinflationary forces now at work we could well see price rises ease quicker than many expect.
- Commodity prices are easing, and the wage price spiral is operating in reverse, notably in the US.
- Labour markets are easing as supply increases. People are re-joining the labour force and immigration is bouncing back.
- Against this backdrop we could see US rates cut early in 2024 with the UK following shortly after.